Power
to the People:
Should
investors start biting at alternative energy stocks?
May
2001
Interview with Eric Prouty, energy technology analyst with
Boston investment bank Adams, Harkness & Hill.
It
only took seven years to go from the first commercially
available Web browser to virtually every major company building
a Web presence. Can this country make similar strides in
terms of its energy production and distribution? Or will
we forever endure the constraints of rolling blackouts and
temperamental OPEC nations? The inertia appears to be ending.
Fuel cell companies are receiving backing from venture capitalists
and automotive companies. Utility companies are re-examining
solar and wind alternatives. And, if the status of energy
technology progresses from a research and development stage
to one of full-scale implementation, the Commonwealth could
be a significant beneficiary.
MID:
The early 90s was the initial hot period for biotech investing,
and the late 90s/ early 2000 was the hot period for Internet
investing. I'm hoping the next arena to receive attention
will be energy technology. What do you think the chances
of that are?
Prouty: Energy has been
and will continue to be one of the largest global sectors--right
up there with transportation and healthcare. It can be said
emphatically that energy touches everyone's lives. I think
investors should start looking at some of these energy technology
names as an investable sector.
MID:
What are some of the new energy technologies that may become
part of our everyday lives?
Prouty: I think a lot
of the technologies you might have seen during the [President
Jimmy] Carter years are seeing a resurgence of interest,
such as solar and wind technologies. I often get asked by
investors, "Why is it different this time around?"
I think one of the big issues is that the cost of these
technologies has come down significantly. In California
especially, we're definitely seeing a resurgence in the
use of renewables. Throughout the U.S., there has been a
renewed interest in large scale wind [power] development
with wind power starting to be developed on a utility scale.
MID:
Explain more about how wind is being utilized.
Prouty: We're seeing
large projects in states such as Minnesota; Texas, surprisingly
enough, is seeing tremendous growth in wind farm development.
And, not only do you have the "clean" aspect of
wind power, but wind helps utilities hedge against price
surges in natural gas.
MID:
You're talking about an existing utility company using wind
power to augment its regular electricity supply?
Prouty: Sure. Florida
Power & Light is a prime example of this. This is a
utility company that is also engaged in large-scale, wind
farm development.
MID:
How does it work? What is a wind farm?
Prouty: It's basically
an area that has a lot of large-size wind turbines sited.
You pick areas where the wind is very amenable to the production
of wind power. So, it's much like putting up a power plant
somewhere. Wind power, especially on a large-scale, is starting
to become cost competitive with centrally generated electricity.
MID: Moving from wind
to the sun, what's your outlook for solar power?
Prouty: We're seeing
a lot of interest in solar power. A lot of individuals in
California are starting to take advantage of incentive programs
that makes the cost of solar power fairly attractive. These
are primarily small systems going up on people's roofs.
The government agencies that run these incentive programs
have seen a ground swell of interest in solar power, which
certainly increased tremendously with the power problems
and rolling blackouts out in California. That being said,
solar power still remains very, very expensive.
MID:
If I'm an investor interested in taking a look at wind power,
are there some companies specifically focused on that space?
Prouty: The real leaders
in wind turbine technology are European--one company called
Vestas Wind Systems; NEG and Micon, both out of Denmark;
and Nordex, a German company that just went public.
MID:
Are the Danish ones publicly traded?
Prouty: Yes. In solar
power, there are publicly traded companies here in the U.S.
You have the larger of the group, Astropower (NASDAQ-APWR).
Currently, we do cover that stock. We have them rated a
MARKET PERFORM. They are, certainly, a significant player
in this industry. They are profitable, so it's a very solid
company.
MID:
What do you think about a local player like Evergreen Solar
(NASDAQ - ESLR)?
Prouty: They're working
on an interesting new technology. It is earlier stage than
Astropower--they're just starting to ramp up their manufacturing.
We don't cover Evergreen, but they do have a new technology
and an interesting marketing relationship with a large Japanese
company, Kawasaki.
There's another one in Massachusetts called Spire (NASDAQ
- SPIR). We don't cover them. They don't make actual solar
cells, but they make the equipment that helps to produce
solar modules and solar cells. They're a capital equipment
provider, sort of like an Applied Materials [semiconductor
equipment manufacturer].
The last company that has some exposure in the solar area
is a company called Energy Conversion Devices (NASDAQ -
ENER), although they do many other things. They have a subsidiary
called United Solar which does have some interesting solar
technology.
MID:
What do you think about the fuel cell space?
Prouty: Fuel cells kind
of run the gamut across all sorts of different technologies,
going from companies that are looking to provide fuel cells
for the home market to companies that are targeting the
automotive market to people targeting the commercial/industrial
market. We cover Plug Power (NASDAQ - PLUG), which is one
of the companies targeting the residential market. We have
it rated a market perform.
MID:
What is their product?
Prouty: It's a fuel
cell. It's a power plant at the home, where a homeowner,
much like having a solar panel, could generate some or all
of their electricity at their house. Or, they can use it
for back up power.
MID:
What does it cost to do that?
Prouty: Well, all of
the fuel cell companies are primarily development stage
companies. Talking about cost today is a little bit difficult,
but it is very expensive. All of these fuel cell companies,
across the board, need to lower costs significantly. There
are still some technological hurdles to overcome in order
to drive down costs. But, it certainly is an interesting
area to look at.
You also have the fuel cells that are targeting the automotive
market. You have Ballard Power (NASDAQ - BLDP), which we
have a BUY rating on. It's a Canadian company. Their fuel
cell would basically replace the internal combustion engine
in the automobile.
MID:
Do you think there is a lot of resistance from auto manufacturers
to this technology?
Prouty: One of the reasons
we like Ballard is that they have teamed-up with a few of
the household names in the automotive area like Daimler-Chrysler
and Ford. Automotive manufacturers are all pursuing varying
advanced technologies, but they have made significant investments
in fuel cell technology.
MID:
The automotive manufacturers have?
Prouty: Yes they have.
Daimler-Chrysler and Ford are working in conjunction with
Ballard. General Motors has a very advanced fuel cell program.
Toyota is working on fuel cells. Really everyone is working
on this technology.
MID:
What do you think about a local company like SatCon (NASDAQ
- SATC)?
Prouty: SatCon really
[works with fuel cell companies] across the board. I would
call an aspect of their technology an "enabling"
technology. They have developed a range of products in an
area we call power electronics, which would be one of the
components to make a fuel cell system work. They have some
interesting technology.
One of the other fuel cell players that we cover is called
Fuel Cell Energy (NASDAQ - FCEL). They're out of Danbury,
CT. They have a much larger fuel cell system and are really
targeting commercial entities.
So these are much larger power plants than the ones that
would be powering a home. We like that market. We have a
STRONG BUY rating on the stock. This is a development stage
company, but our belief is--as far as fuel cell companies
go--we like the market and technology of Fuel Cell Energy
the best.
MID:
What do you think it will take to catalyze the rapid deployment
of these technologies, similar to the rapid adoption of
Internet technologies?
Prouty: I don't think
there will ever be some "snap of the finger" mass
adoption of any of these technologies. There are companies
producing solar cells like Astropower, which is profitable.
The wind business is very profitable and is a fairly large
business right now. But, we already have a grid in place
and it's already depreciated almost down to zero. We have
large central power plants producing an awful lot of electricity.
I always caution people to [not look at this sector] as
something that, with a snap of the finger, is going to rocket
to the moon. Where I think it does get interesting is in
some of the emerging markets where you don't have this infrastructure
already built. But, we have a huge infrastructure here in
this county.
MID:
Jumping to another local company, what do you think about
American Superconductor (NASDAQ - AMSC)?
Prouty: Both American
Superconductor, and a company up in New York called Intermagnetics
General (NYSE - IMG), are looking to solve some of the power
transmission issues that we have.
A lot of the power problems this country faces isn't a matter
of generation, it's really a transmission and distribution
issue. Much like an Internet bandwidth issue, there is only
so much electricity you can put through a power line.
Nowadays, it's very difficult to get enough power into some
cities like San Francisco and New York City. This superconductive
wire these companies are working on would allow utilities
to send more electricity through the same size wire. It
quite often is equated to optical fiber.
MID:
If you were to pick one company in alternative energy that
you're really bullish on, who would that be?
Prouty: It's funny,
because a lot of people wouldn't consider this alternative
energy, but we cover a company called C & D Technologies
(NYSE - CHP). It's actually North America's largest provider
of reserve power batteries.
Most people would not think of this as exotic technology
for these are primarily lead acid batteries, but C&D
is kind of the "work-horse" of backup power right
now, whether it be computer networks, data centers or cell
towers--all of these use lead acid batteries for backup
power.
It's an interesting play into what we call the power quality/reliability
market. We have a BUY rating on it and have a $36.00 price
target. Last fiscal year they did almost $600 million in
revenue.
|